{
  "name": "Warconomy — current signals watchlist",
  "asOf": "2026-06-05",
  "page": "https://warconomy.com/current",
  "kind": "source-reviewed-watchlist",
  "reviewed": "2026-06-26",
  "nextReview": "2026-10-24",
  "reviewIntervalDays": 120,
  "note": "A curated watchlist, NOT live news and NOT a market terminal. Each item names what to watch and the authoritative free source to watch it on. Warconomy publishes no current numbers and asserts no current event; where there is no verifiable dated source, this is a watch item, not a signal.",
  "channels": [
    {
      "id": "energy",
      "label": "Energy · oil & gas"
    },
    {
      "id": "fuel-products",
      "label": "Refineries & fuel"
    },
    {
      "id": "shipping",
      "label": "Shipping & chokepoints"
    },
    {
      "id": "sanctions",
      "label": "Sanctions & trade"
    },
    {
      "id": "food",
      "label": "Food & fertilizer"
    },
    {
      "id": "minerals",
      "label": "Critical minerals"
    },
    {
      "id": "migration",
      "label": "Migration & human capital"
    },
    {
      "id": "defense",
      "label": "Defense & fiscal"
    },
    {
      "id": "humanitarian",
      "label": "Humanitarian disruption"
    }
  ],
  "regions": [
    {
      "id": "russia-ukraine",
      "label": "Russia–Ukraine"
    },
    {
      "id": "middle-east",
      "label": "Middle East & Red Sea"
    },
    {
      "id": "africa",
      "label": "Africa"
    },
    {
      "id": "asia",
      "label": "Asia-Pacific"
    },
    {
      "id": "global",
      "label": "Global"
    }
  ],
  "items": [
    {
      "id": "ru-refineries",
      "channel": "fuel-products",
      "region": "russia-ukraine",
      "title": "Russian refinery disruption & fuel-product flows",
      "watchFor": "Reports of refinery outages and any Russian curbs on fuel-product exports, plus diesel/gasoline availability in affected markets.",
      "why": "Refining capacity, not just crude, sets fuel supply; outages can tighten diesel and gasoline even while crude exports continue.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "U.S. EIA — petroleum & energy data",
          "url": "https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/",
          "type": "official"
        },
        {
          "label": "IEA Oil Market Report",
          "url": "https://www.iea.org/topics/oil-market-report",
          "type": "intergovernmental"
        }
      ],
      "relatedRoutes": [
        {
          "label": "Briefing: strikes on Russian refineries",
          "href": "/briefings/ukraine-strikes-russian-refineries-oil-products",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/briefings/ukraine-strikes-russian-refineries-oil-products"
        },
        {
          "label": "Russia–Ukraine hub",
          "href": "/conflicts/russia-ukraine",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/conflicts/russia-ukraine"
        }
      ],
      "doNotProve": "This points to where outage and export data are published; Warconomy publishes no outage volumes or export figures of its own.",
      "mode": "watch"
    },
    {
      "id": "ru-oil-sanctions",
      "channel": "sanctions",
      "region": "russia-ukraine",
      "title": "Russian oil sanctions, the price cap & the shadow fleet",
      "watchFor": "New listings and price-cap enforcement actions, and changes in where Russian crude is shipped and insured.",
      "why": "Sanctions and the price cap reshape where Russian barrels flow and at what discount, with knock-on effects for global oil trade.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "U.S. Treasury OFAC sanctions",
          "url": "https://ofac.treasury.gov/",
          "type": "official"
        },
        {
          "label": "EU Sanctions Map",
          "url": "https://www.sanctionsmap.eu/",
          "type": "official"
        },
        {
          "label": "IEA Oil Market Report",
          "url": "https://www.iea.org/topics/oil-market-report",
          "type": "intergovernmental"
        }
      ],
      "relatedRoutes": [
        {
          "label": "Briefing: sanctions, price cap & shadow fleet",
          "href": "/briefings/sanctions-shadow-fleet-oil-trade",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/briefings/sanctions-shadow-fleet-oil-trade"
        },
        {
          "label": "Russia energy-trade sanctions",
          "href": "/sanctions/russia-energy-trade/economic-impact",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/sanctions/russia-energy-trade/economic-impact"
        }
      ],
      "doNotProve": "Sanctions designations and enforcement live on the official lists linked here; this is not legal or compliance advice.",
      "mode": "watch"
    },
    {
      "id": "hormuz-oil",
      "channel": "energy",
      "region": "middle-east",
      "title": "Strait of Hormuz oil & LNG risk",
      "watchFor": "Tanker rerouting, war-risk insurance premiums and any official statements affecting transit through the Strait of Hormuz.",
      "why": "About a fifth of the world's oil and much of its LNG transits Hormuz, so disruption risk there carries outsized weight for energy prices.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "IEA Oil Market Report",
          "url": "https://www.iea.org/topics/oil-market-report",
          "type": "intergovernmental"
        },
        {
          "label": "IMF PortWatch (ports & chokepoints)",
          "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/",
          "type": "intergovernmental"
        },
        {
          "label": "U.S. EIA — petroleum & energy data",
          "url": "https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/",
          "type": "official"
        }
      ],
      "relatedRoutes": [
        {
          "label": "Briefing: Iran/Hormuz oil & shipping risk",
          "href": "/briefings/iran-hormuz-oil-prices-shipping-risk",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/briefings/iran-hormuz-oil-prices-shipping-risk"
        },
        {
          "label": "Strait of Hormuz economic impact",
          "href": "/chokepoints/strait-of-hormuz/economic-impact",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/chokepoints/strait-of-hormuz/economic-impact"
        }
      ],
      "doNotProve": "A risk premium is a market description, not a forecast that any disruption will occur.",
      "mode": "watch"
    },
    {
      "id": "red-sea-shipping",
      "channel": "shipping",
      "region": "middle-east",
      "title": "Red Sea shipping & global freight",
      "watchFor": "Vessel transit volumes through Bab-el-Mandeb / Suez, rerouting around southern Africa, and container freight rates.",
      "why": "Rerouting lengthens voyages and tightens capacity, which can raise freight costs and, slowly, the price of imported goods.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "IMF PortWatch (ports & chokepoints)",
          "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/",
          "type": "intergovernmental"
        },
        {
          "label": "UNCTAD review of maritime transport",
          "url": "https://unctad.org/topic/transport-and-trade-logistics",
          "type": "intergovernmental"
        }
      ],
      "relatedRoutes": [
        {
          "label": "Briefing: Red Sea shipping & commodity costs",
          "href": "/briefings/red-sea-shipping-costs-and-commodity-prices",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/briefings/red-sea-shipping-costs-and-commodity-prices"
        },
        {
          "label": "Red Sea shipping economic impact",
          "href": "/chokepoints/red-sea-shipping/economic-impact",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/chokepoints/red-sea-shipping/economic-impact"
        }
      ],
      "doNotProve": "Transit and freight data are published by the linked trackers; Warconomy publishes no live shipping counts.",
      "mode": "watch"
    },
    {
      "id": "food-prices",
      "channel": "food",
      "region": "global",
      "title": "World food prices & export conditions",
      "watchFor": "The monthly FAO Food Price Index, Black Sea grain export conditions, and any new export restrictions on grain or fertilizer.",
      "why": "Conflict-driven disruption to grain, vegetable-oil and fertilizer exports can lift world food prices, felt most by import-dependent households.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "FAO Food Price Monitoring & Analysis",
          "url": "https://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/home/en/",
          "type": "intergovernmental"
        },
        {
          "label": "FAO GIEWS (food security & prices)",
          "url": "https://www.fao.org/giews/en/",
          "type": "intergovernmental"
        }
      ],
      "relatedRoutes": [
        {
          "label": "Briefing: why wars affect food prices",
          "href": "/briefings/war-food-prices-explained",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/briefings/war-food-prices-explained"
        },
        {
          "label": "Commodity price history",
          "href": "/commodities/history",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/commodities/history"
        }
      ],
      "doNotProve": "Retail food prices move far less than world commodity prices; pass-through is partial and varies by country.",
      "mode": "watch"
    },
    {
      "id": "fertilizer",
      "channel": "food",
      "region": "global",
      "title": "Fertilizer prices & gas-linked input costs",
      "watchFor": "Urea and DAP prices and natural-gas costs, which drive fertilizer affordability and next season's harvests.",
      "why": "Fertilizer is gas-intensive, so energy shocks feed into fertilizer and, with a lag, into food production and prices.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "World Bank Commodity Markets (Pink Sheet)",
          "url": "https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets",
          "type": "intergovernmental"
        },
        {
          "label": "FAO GIEWS (food security & prices)",
          "url": "https://www.fao.org/giews/en/",
          "type": "intergovernmental"
        }
      ],
      "relatedRoutes": [
        {
          "label": "Food & fertilizer topic",
          "href": "/topics/food-fertilizer",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/topics/food-fertilizer"
        },
        {
          "label": "Commodity explorer",
          "href": "/commodities",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/commodities"
        }
      ],
      "doNotProve": "These are market prices, not a measure of any specific harvest or shortage.",
      "mode": "watch"
    },
    {
      "id": "drc-minerals",
      "channel": "minerals",
      "region": "africa",
      "title": "DRC & central-Africa critical minerals",
      "watchFor": "Conditions around cobalt, copper, tantalum and tin supply from conflict-affected central Africa, and metal prices.",
      "why": "Battery and electronics supply chains run through central Africa, so instability there is a structural supply-chain exposure.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries",
          "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/mineral-commodity-summaries",
          "type": "official"
        },
        {
          "label": "World Bank metal prices",
          "url": "https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets",
          "type": "intergovernmental"
        }
      ],
      "relatedRoutes": [
        {
          "label": "Briefing: DRC cobalt & copper",
          "href": "/briefings/drc-conflict-cobalt-copper-trade",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/briefings/drc-conflict-cobalt-copper-trade"
        },
        {
          "label": "Critical minerals",
          "href": "/minerals",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/minerals"
        }
      ],
      "doNotProve": "Concentration describes exposure, not a prediction of disruption; Warconomy publishes no production figures.",
      "mode": "watch"
    },
    {
      "id": "sahel-uranium-gold",
      "channel": "minerals",
      "region": "africa",
      "title": "Sahel uranium & gold",
      "watchFor": "Political risk in Sahel producer states and its relevance to uranium and gold supply and financing.",
      "why": "Several Sahel countries are notable uranium producers; gold is both an export earner and a conflict-finance asset.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries",
          "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/mineral-commodity-summaries",
          "type": "official"
        },
        {
          "label": "UN OCHA / ReliefWeb",
          "url": "https://reliefweb.int/",
          "type": "intergovernmental"
        }
      ],
      "relatedRoutes": [
        {
          "label": "Briefing: Sahel uranium & gold",
          "href": "/briefings/sahel-conflict-uranium-gold-trade",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/briefings/sahel-conflict-uranium-gold-trade"
        },
        {
          "label": "Critical minerals",
          "href": "/minerals",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/minerals"
        }
      ],
      "doNotProve": "This is structural exposure; Warconomy makes no claim about current output or any conflict's effect on it.",
      "mode": "watch"
    },
    {
      "id": "sudan-food-displacement",
      "channel": "humanitarian",
      "region": "africa",
      "title": "Sudan: food security, trade & displacement",
      "watchFor": "Food-security assessments, regional trade and Red Sea port conditions, and displacement figures from humanitarian trackers.",
      "why": "Conflict can collapse local output and trade and drive large displacement, with regional economic spillovers.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "UN OCHA / ReliefWeb",
          "url": "https://reliefweb.int/",
          "type": "intergovernmental"
        },
        {
          "label": "FAO GIEWS (food security & prices)",
          "url": "https://www.fao.org/giews/en/",
          "type": "intergovernmental"
        },
        {
          "label": "UNHCR Operational Data Portal",
          "url": "https://data.unhcr.org/",
          "type": "intergovernmental"
        }
      ],
      "relatedRoutes": [
        {
          "label": "Africa hub",
          "href": "/conflicts/africa",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/conflicts/africa"
        },
        {
          "label": "War, population & scarring",
          "href": "/human-capital",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/human-capital"
        }
      ],
      "doNotProve": "Casualty and displacement figures are uncertain and contested; read them from the specialist sources linked here.",
      "mode": "watch"
    },
    {
      "id": "displacement-migration",
      "channel": "migration",
      "region": "global",
      "title": "Displacement, refugees & labour force",
      "watchFor": "Refugee and IDP figures from UNHCR and IOM, and what they imply for origin- and host-country labour forces.",
      "why": "Displacement removes skills from origin economies and reshapes host-country labour markets; return is uncertain.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "UNHCR Operational Data Portal",
          "url": "https://data.unhcr.org/",
          "type": "intergovernmental"
        },
        {
          "label": "IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix",
          "url": "https://dtm.iom.int/",
          "type": "intergovernmental"
        }
      ],
      "relatedRoutes": [
        {
          "label": "Briefing: refugees, migration & brain drain",
          "href": "/briefings/refugees-migration-brain-drain-war-economy",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/briefings/refugees-migration-brain-drain-war-economy"
        },
        {
          "label": "War, population & scarring",
          "href": "/human-capital",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/human-capital"
        }
      ],
      "doNotProve": "Displacement figures are estimates from the cited agencies; Warconomy publishes none of its own.",
      "mode": "watch"
    },
    {
      "id": "defense-budgets",
      "channel": "defense",
      "region": "global",
      "title": "Defense budgets, debt & inflation",
      "watchFor": "Announced defense-budget changes, the NATO 2%-of-GDP count, and how higher spending is financed.",
      "why": "Defense spending shifts budgets and can interact with debt and inflation; financing choices shape the trade-offs.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "SIPRI military expenditure",
          "url": "https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex",
          "type": "research"
        },
        {
          "label": "NATO defence expenditure",
          "url": "https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49198.htm",
          "type": "intergovernmental"
        }
      ],
      "relatedRoutes": [
        {
          "label": "Defense spending",
          "href": "/defense",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/defense"
        },
        {
          "label": "Scenario Lab: defense burden",
          "href": "/scenario-lab",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/scenario-lab"
        }
      ],
      "doNotProve": "Budget figures live with their official sources; crowding-out depends on financing and is not asserted here.",
      "mode": "watch"
    },
    {
      "id": "taiwan-semiconductors",
      "channel": "shipping",
      "region": "asia",
      "title": "South China Sea / Taiwan — chips & trade lanes",
      "watchFor": "Shipping conditions in the South China Sea and any developments relevant to advanced-semiconductor supply.",
      "why": "Concentrated chip manufacturing and busy sea lanes mean disruption risk is watched closely for electronics supply chains.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "IMF PortWatch (ports & chokepoints)",
          "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/",
          "type": "intergovernmental"
        },
        {
          "label": "WSTS / SIA semiconductor statistics",
          "url": "https://www.semiconductors.org/",
          "type": "research"
        }
      ],
      "relatedRoutes": [
        {
          "label": "Briefing: Taiwan & semiconductor risk",
          "href": "/briefings/taiwan-conflict-semiconductors-economic-risk",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/briefings/taiwan-conflict-semiconductors-economic-risk"
        },
        {
          "label": "Conflict map",
          "href": "/conflict-map",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/conflict-map"
        }
      ],
      "doNotProve": "This is structural supply-chain exposure, not a prediction that any conflict will occur.",
      "mode": "watch"
    }
  ]
}